New Hampshire Predictions The DC Guy January 8, 2008

Today is New Hampshire. Stop #2 on the road to the White House.

Here's my predictions. Let's see if I can do as well as I did in the Iowa Predictions.

Think you've got it figured out? Post your New Hamshire Predictions.

Republicans

Winner.) McCain - For some reason, the good people of New Hampshire are in love with John McCain. Generally the idea is that they like an independent, and McCain has the reputation for being a maverick. He's leading the polls and his focus has been on NH. He is also out of money. If he doesn't win here, he'll never be President.

2.) Romney - Romney is in critical meltdown mode right now. He should have won Iowa - he lead there for most of the last year. And, similarly, he should win New Hampshire. But he won't. He's been very negative, willing to attack all of the other candidates and that hasn't played well here. He's now #2 in the polls despite spending an obscene amount of money. While he has enough cash to continue on to the convention, his second place finish here will effectively end his chances. He can only keep going if he wins.

3.) Giuliani - Whoever comes in 3rd here will be the real winner of New Hampshire. My money is on Rudy. Huckabee doesn't appeal to New Hampshire voters, and he's broke. Thompson has never polled out of the single digits. Paul may be able to sneak in here and capture 3rd, but I think Rudy will take 3rd. And when I say 3rd, I mean a distant 3rd, as in barely over 10%.

Just as a side note, nothing would be better for Rudy than if McCain wins here. Romney was his biggest threat, and Romney just got his knees cut out from him by two of the other candidates. Rudy has the money to go for the long haul, and McCain and Huckabee don't.

Democrats

Winner.) Obama - People are starting to recognize that Obama's win in Iowa was a big deal. Not because he won, but because he demonstrated to the Democratic party and to independents that he could win. A lot of folks didn't think he'd be a viable candidate, and he's proven them wrong. So, unlike Huckabee, his win in Iowa gave him a major boost going into today, and I think it will be enough for him to win. The four days of free media from winning Iowa, coupled with Clinton's missteps the last few days, make him the favorite here.

2.) Clinton - Someone needs to send Clinton a memo and remind her that there's no crying in baseball, and certainly no crying in politics. Ask Ed Muskie. DCGal told me "She just set back women in the workplace twenty years with that crying nonsense yesterday." Clinton's campaign is imploding. Everyone is second guessing, and she looks tired and miserable. She should be happy - she's doing well, the pressure is off her now as everyone is calling Obama the frontrunner, so she can just run her campaign and do what she needs to do. She's got enough money to ride this thing 'til the convention, so second place here won't kill her, but as I said when I wrote up my statement on Iowa, she's lost her rep for being invincible.

3.) Edwards - Edwards brand of whiny populism, as evidenced by his hideously bad, near-Howard-Dean worthy screech of a speech at Iowa, where not only did he spend the entire time telling us everything wrong with America, he wouldn't have even thanked everyone for coming out if his wife hadn't grabbed him and reminded him to do so. NH voters have heard his song and dance before and they aren't buying. With a 3rd place win here, he's effectively done.