Much DeLay about Nothing The DC Guy September 30, 2005

Despite what you're hearing about doom and gloom for the GOP, the chances of the charges against Tom DeLay sticking are pretty low. In case you haven't seen these yet, the indictment papers are available online. It's also extremely debatable whether the indictment will have any real effect on the political landscape. That's not me being a partisan - that's me being realistic.

What's a little conspiracy among friends?
Under Texas election law, corporations are prohibited from making political contributions to candidates. In 2002, the Texans for a Republican Majority PAC (TRMPAC) solicited and received over half a million dollars in contributions from corporations.

The indictment alleges that DeLay conspired with two of the PAC's directors to knowingly violate the campaign finance laws.

Partisanship aside, is this a really a huge big deal?

No. I know there are a lot of people out there who wish it were, but it isn't. This thing has been hashed and rehashed for years now.

Two of the TRMPAC Directors were already indicted on charges of violating the campaign finance laws in Texas earlier in September. DeLay wasn't mentioned anywhere in the indictments.

There was already a court case on them not reporting these contributions last May. The TRMPAC treasurer was found liable for not reporting the contributions, but the judge did not rule on the legality of the contributions themselves (which will be decided when the criminal case goes to trial).

Old news isn't always good news
This whole story is old news. No one in DC was surprised that these charges came. DeLay himself was expecting them to come, which was why the Republicans tried to amend their rules back in November of 2004 to ensure that if he were indicted, he wouldn't have to step down.

Thanks to the furor the Democrats were able to whip up, the rule requiring a member to leave the leadership if they are indicted remained in place.

If there was any surprise, it was that Ronnie Earle (who needs a better website, wow) took this long to actually get his indictments.

The bottom line here is that Speaker Hastert is a political ally of DeLay's, and gives credit to DeLay for him being named Speaker in the first place. So DeLay's not going anywhere. He may not have much official power, but he'll still speak with the weight of the Republican leadership behind him.

With most of America now believing these charges to be politically based, the effect on the overall scheme of things in Washington will be negligible.

I like the alliteration in "Culture of Corruption"
As for this being a hammer (pun intended) with which the Democrats can assail the Republicans in next year's elections, don't hold your breath. While they are doing so well with the "Culture of Corruption" talking points provided by Howard Dean that even Rush Limbaugh and News Busters have picked up on it, it's not really going to make much of a difference.

The elections are nearly a year away, and the chances that anyone will remember what happened this time of the year - a time filled with Roberts, Katrina, Rita and the as-yet-unnamed Supreme Court Pick #2 - is slim.

The only person who really will benefit from this is Nick Lampson, a former Texas Congressman who lost his seat thanks to the DeLay-orchestrated Texas redistricting and who is now running against him. He can use this indictment to increase his fundraising nationally.