|
I've got access to tons of polls, friends on the various campaigns, and up-to-the-minute blogging from reporters. That being said, anybody who tells you they know what is going on tomorrow is a liar. No one has any idea. Just ask Tim Russert.
So, post your predictions!
Here are mine.
Republicans
Winner.) Huckabee - Huckabee has the benefit of being the media darling right now, although he did have a misstep last week with his "I'm not running this ad, but here it is for you to see" press conference on Friday. But I don't think anyone other than media will care about this at all. Huckabee is funny and folks like him - I think that's the combination that will lead him to victory in Iowa.
2.) Romney - Romney is the long-time front runner in Iowa, but that's because he was spending the most money. Folks know who Romney is, and either they like him or they don't. He doesn't have the benefit of being the underdog. He also has the most to lose - if he doesn't win, his campaign will be in serious trouble. He's banking on winning Iowa to get him out of the basement nationally. If he can't win here (which I don't think he can), he's in trouble.
3.) Paul - This guy has got the grassroots buzz that makes me think he's going to shake things up tomorrow. Granted, he's got little organization, but that didn't stop him from raising $20 million last quarter, more than any of the other candidates. This is ridiculous and scary. But if he can raise that kind of money, he may be able to pull of a major upset. If Paul comes in third, that will be a far bigger deal than either Huckabee or Romney coming in 1st or 2nd. I pray that this doesn't happen and #3 is Thompson, but stranger things have happened.
Democrats
Winner.) Obama - Obama is hands down the media darling of the Democratic side, and has been getting a lot of good press lately. He's not made any major mistakes lately, and there have been a ton of "Clinton's people are getting nervous" stories. Granted, most of those are pushed by Clinton's people to lower expectations for her, but they have a tinge of the truth about them. He's also got the most to lose - if Clinton wins Iowa, the Democratic race for president is over. She's got it. That's why Obama has been pushing so hard in Iowa. And I think it's going to pay off.
2.) Edwards - Edwards has a lot to lose here as well. If he doesn't come in first or second in Iowa (preferably first), his campaign is over. He's the most organized, he's done this before and his message is calculated to appeal to Iowans specifically. But I just don't think he's got the star power. This campaign has been all about Obama and Clinton, and he's kind of been the third guy mentioned, if at all. I think his organization will help him to second place, but he won't make it to the top.
3.) Clinton - This is where the American people figure out that Hillary's crown really isn't made of gold - she got it at BK. Her negatives and her perceived status as the inevitable candidate are going to drive down her turnout and she's going to lose. This is why her people have been desperately trying to lower expectations and dump the aforementioned "Clinton's people are getting nervous" stories on the press. I smell blood in the water here, and I think Hillary is going to come in third. If this happens, things are going to get interesting quick.
Tomorrow is going to be fun. |
